BFCM 2024: 7 predictions you need to know today

BFCM 2024, better known as the most intense shopping period of the year, is just around the corner, and everything indicates that sales will be healthier than ever. In fact, online retail sales in the United States are expected to during the Christmas season reach record numbers this year, with an increase of almost 10% compared to 2023.

While we don't have a crystal ball to predict exactly what to expect from the sales season, in this article we've put together the closest thing: a set of predictions to help you prepare for BFCM 2024.

Let's start!

These are the 7 predictions we have found so far about BFCM 2024:

1. The start will be earlier than ever

The 2023 golden season took some brands by surprise, starting earlier than ever and allowing 56% of customers to start their holiday shopping in October or even earlier. This is why stores must be prepared for this trend to repeat itself, and they should even be ready to talk about their offers even sooner.

This year, there are only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Which makes this holiday season shorter than most other years. We haven't seen a calendar like this since 2019, and it's very likely that brands will launch their BFCM sales even earlier than last year to extend the number of days available for Christmas shopping.

2. Customers also start their research earlier

It's not just brands that got ahead of themselves in 2023. Many customers also started their purchasing research long before sales started. It is expected that in 2024 consumers will continue with this selective, with 74% of shoppers saying they will spend more time finding the best products and deals. In fact, this trend has already begun, with BFCM-related keywords climbing positions in Google Trends.

Why this change?

First, consumers are shopping more selectively and want to ensure they have enough time to compare products and prices to get the best quality at the best price.

Secondly, they don't want to miss out on the best deals. Researching early allows them to keep an eye on the products they want and buy them as soon as they drop in price. Finally, if you have several purchases in mind, good research allows you to spread your budget and expenses, possibly over several months and paychecks.

3. Mobile use will continue to increase

In 2023, mobile represented 54% of online sales, and specifically during the Black Friday period, mobile sales increased by 10.4%. BFCM and the holiday season in general attracted more users through mobile than any other device.

However, it's interesting that although mobile visits were high, they only converted at 3.1%, compared to 5.5% for conversions on other devices. This suggests that customers are likely switching between devices as they research and purchase, so the customer experience needs to be seamless on whichever platform they browse or purchase.

4. Paid search will peak

Data shows that paid search was the main driver of e-commerce sales in all of 2023, accounting for 30% of all online sales. Therefore, we anticipate that paid search will play an important role in your BFCM sales.

If we consider the previous factors (more research and more mobile interaction), this trend becomes even more evident. This is positive, as customers who come to your website through paid search tend to have high intent, having specifically searched for your product or brand. However, this also means that your acquisition costs could skyrocket during the BFCM.

You'll need to work to secure second purchases and increase the customer lifetime value (CLV) of peak season shoppers to offset these costs.

5. Offers and discounts will continue to be essential

Although we would like to see a decrease in the need for discounts, this trend will likely continue for another year. In 2023, discounts reached record levels. The data also shows that 19% of shoppers abandoned their carts to look for better deals, and 15% did so while waiting for a product to drop in price.

We can't tell you how much you should discount, as that will depend on your profit margins and the price of your products. We also can't tell you if all your customers need a discount to purchase, as that depends on the loyalty of your customer base.

However, we can tell you that consumers are increasingly aware of cost efficiency, looking for the perfect combination of quality, satisfaction of their needs and a price that they consider reasonable. Therefore, it is important that your Christmas promotions are clear, easy to find and understand. It's also a good idea to highlight quality and value for money in your message.

6. Fashion, health and beauty brands will see the biggest boom

In the past, the BFCM has been characterized by an increase in the sale of high-value products. Like electronics, furniture and other more thoughtful purchases, as customers expected the product they had wanted all year to drop in price. This trend has not completely disappeared; in fact, electronics was the second best-selling category during BFCM 2023, with home appliances not far behind.

However, last year, fashion and accessories, as well as health and beauty brands, were the best-selling verticals, according to Shopify data. We expect this trend to continue in 2024. Why? Because the health and beauty sector has seen the highest growth of all categories in 2024, likely because consumers continue to prioritize products that improve their well-being over less essential purchases. Fashion and accessories may not have grown as fast, but they have remained stable, while electronics have seen some decline.

Consumer behavior in 2023 suggests that they now see the peak season as a time to purchase a mix of everyday and higher-value products, indicating that they are likely to allocate more of their budget to these two most popular categories.

7. Social commerce will boost sales

Social commerce (allowing consumers to buy directly through social media) is booming, and eMarketer predicts that 36% of internet users will be shopping through social channels by the end of 2023.

With social commerce becoming more and more present, it is logical to think that it will also be a constant source of sales during the Christmas season. Social media is also one of the platforms that consumers use to conduct their pre-purchase research. In fact, 54% of Generation Z, 45% of Millennials and 27% of Generation X say they plan to use social media to discover gift ideas this season.

This suggests that your holiday sales strategy should incorporate social media, regardless of the target audience you are targeting. For some, this will mean an increase in sales through social commerce, which aligns with the trend of increasing mobile purchases.

For others, it will mean an increase in advertising and the promotion of special offers through social networks. Whatever your approach, social media is likely to play a bigger role in your marketing strategy this holiday season.

Frequently Asked Questions and Quick Answers (FAQ) about the BFCM

Knowing the trends or predictions is undoubtedly a key aspect. However, as Ecommerce Managers during the preparation of the season we usually have many questions. With this in mind, we have created this list of frequently asked questions that many customers and merchants often ask us while they are planning for the season. We hope they are helpful.

1. When should I start planning my BFCM campaign?

It is advisable to start planning at least 3 months before Black Friday. This gives you enough time to prepare inventory, develop marketing campaigns and optimize your online store.

2. How can I make sure my website doesn't go down with increased traffic?

Stress test your server and make sure it is prepared to handle traffic spikes. Consider using a Content Delivery Network (CDN) to distribute traffic and optimize loading speed. Even, hire a specialized team.

3. What types of discounts work best at BFCM?

Percentage discounts (like 20% or 30%) and "buy one, get one off" deals are often the most effective. You can also create product packs or limited-time discounts to generate urgency. 

4. How can I make my store more attractive on mobile devices?

Make sure your store is fully responsive, that is, it adapts to any mobile device. Simplify the purchasing process, include quick payment options, and optimize images to load faster. In this article you can find more information.

5. What are the best social media platforms to promote my BFCM offers?

It will depend on your audience, but in general, Instagram, Facebook and TikTok are effective platforms for visual campaigns and quick promotions. Don't forget to use the social commerce functions so that customers can buy directly from the platform.

6. What can I do if a customer abandons their cart in my store?

Implement remarketing strategies such as automatic emails reminding you of abandoned products, or social media ads showing the forgotten cart with an additional incentive, such as a limited-time discount. In this article We go into detail.

7. How much should I spend on paid ads during BFCM?

This will depend on your total budget, but it is generally advisable to increase your ad spending during this season as traffic and competition are higher. Be sure to closely monitor return on investment (ROI) to adjust your strategy in real time.

8. How can I measure the success of my BFCM campaign?

Monitor key KPIs such as conversion rate, average order value (AOV), web traffic, sales generated, and cart abandonment rate. Use real-time analytics tools to obtain insights and adjust your strategy if necessary.

9. Is it necessary to offer free shipping during BFCM?

Although not required, free shipping can be a great incentive to increase conversions. If you can't offer it on all orders, consider applying it to purchases over a certain amount or on specific products.

10. What should I do after BFCM to maximize sales?

Take advantage of the information collected during BFCM to segment your database and plan remarketing campaigns. It's also important to offer follow-up promotions, such as year-end discounts or loyalty programs, to keep new customers interested. In this other article We delve into postseason actions.

Do you have more questions or want to make sure your online store is ready for BFCM 2024?

Contact us today here to receive personalized advice and monitor the performance of your ecommerce during the most important sales season of the year. We are here to help you maximize your sales!